4/26 Oracle/ITA Ranking Projections - NEW Women's #1

Virginia stays at No. 1 despite falling in the finals of the ACC Championship to Wake Forest. UVA's big win over North Carolina is what solidified their spot at the top though if UNC would have won that much they would have jumped up to No. 1. UCLA stays at No. 2 after winning the Pac-12 Championship with North Carolina staying at #3 after a semifinal showing at the ACC Championships. Ohio State rises one spot to No. 4 after beating both Northwestern and Illinois while TCU drops one spot to No. 5 after losing at Texas Tech.

There were some teams that improved their chances of qualifying for the NCAAs while there were others that really hurt themselves with some untimely losses. It's also going to be a battle to see who finishes in the top 16 and thus gets to host a NCAA regional.

Weekend Winners:
Cal - locked up a top 16 ranking by defeating USC in the Pac-12 semifinals; the Bears also were in a winning position on several courts against UCLA but came up just short in the Pac-12 finals.
South Florida - won the AAC Championship by beating a pair of top 35 teams in Tulane and Tulsa. As of this minute they are ranked No. 16 which puts them in position to host a NCAA regional.
Virginia Tech - took itself off the bubble with a big 4-3 win over Florida State in the ACC quarters
Penn State - took itself off the bubble by erasing the loss to Minnesota with a big win over Illinois
Dartmouth - picked up a huge road win at Harvard which has the Big Green sitting pretty good at No. 39.

Weekend Losers:
Illinois - rough weekend for the Illini with them falling at Penn State and Ohio State - the loss to the Buckeyes wasn't a surprise but the one to Penn State definitely was. The Illini will have to avenge the loss to Penn State on Friday in the Big Ten Tournament and then will probably need to beat Northwestern to move back into the top 16.
Arkansas - any chance of climbing back into the top 16 was dashed when it lost to South Carolina for the second time in the last five days.
Wisconsin - any chances of making the NCAA (sans winning the B1G Tournament) went out the window with losses to Indiana and Purdue.

It looks like the men's NCAA at-large cutoff will be 42 unless San Diego gets upset at the WCC Championships. Those teams sitting on the bubble definitely will be Toreros fans this week

This set of rankings used each team's nine best wins as will next week's unpublished rankings which will be used to determine the NCAA Tournament field. Next week's rankings will actually be run twice so that way they'll be as accurate as possible for Selection Tuesday. Schools that have an * beside the school name have less than nine ranked wins so I had to do some guesswork on where the unranked wins fall in the rankings.

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We have a new No. 1 on the women's side with the SEC Champion Florida Gators dethroning Cal with the Bears dropping to No. 2. North Carolina drops one spot to No. 3 despite winning the ACC Championship - the drop was due to the fact that Florida shot up with wins over Auburn and Georgia at the SEC Tournament. Georgia stays at No. 4 after making it to the finals of the SEC Tournament while Ohio State moves up to No. 5.

Vanderbilt drops one spot to No. 6 after falling to Georgia in the SEC semifinals - the main reason for the drop was because Ohio State fell to No. 6 last week which meant Vandy's two losses to the Buckeyes counted .2 against them instead of .1 from the previous week. That variance will correct itself this week though Ohio State has a chance to beat a ranked Michigan if they meet at the Big Ten Tournament.

It looks like the women's NCAA at-large cutoff will be 44 unless Pepperdine gets upset at the WCC, and/or Wichita State gets upset at the MVC. If one of those teams lost it would drive the number down. Some of the teams in the bubble zone will have a chance to stamp their ticket this weekend in their respective conference tournaments (Denver/Fresno State).

Weekend Winners:
Stanford - guaranteed itself a spot as a regional host with a win over USC in Ojai.
Virginia - Cavs locked up a spot in the top 16 with its run to the ACC finals.
William & Mary - took itself off the bubble by winning its conference tournament
Rice - took itself off the bubble by winning its conference tournament
Georgia State - took itself off the bubble by winning its conference tournament
Baylor - picked up a huge road win at Texas which probably will put them
Notre Dame - wisely scheduled a match with Norfolk State which got them to .500 and then pulled off a mild upset at the ACC Tournament by beating Clemson. As of today the Irish would be the last team in but had they not beat Clemson they probably would be too far back.

Weekend Losers:
Florida International - lost to Rice in the finals of the CUSA Championship - will be sweating out the bubble now
South Florida - lost to Tulsa in the finals of the AAC Championship - winning the conference was the Bulls only way to get in.

4/26/16 Men's Ranking Projections

Rank	School	Points	Previous
1	Virginia	77.36	1
2	UCLA - IN	71.87	2
3	North Carolina	70.06	3
4	Ohio State	68.86	5
5	TCU	68.72	4
6	Wake Forest - IN	66.00	7
7	Georgia	62.56	6
8	Texas Tech	59.86	9
9	Florida - IN	57.91	11
10	Oklahoma	55.31	10
11	USC	52.42	8
12	California	50.61	16
13	Northwestern	50.35	14
14	Texas A&M	48.51	13
15	Oklahoma State	48.48	12
16	South Florida - IN	45.86	17
17	Illinois	42.48	15
18	Texas	40.35	19
19	Arkansas	40.16	18
20	Kentucky	37.56	20
21	Florida State	34.86	21
22	Mississippi State	34.45	25
23	Tulsa	34.30	23
24	Michigan	33.19	22
25	Columbia - IN	32.61	24
26	Rice* - IN	31.89	26
27	Stanford*	28.12	32
28	SMU*	27.81	27
29	Ole Miss*	27.73	29
30	San Diego	27.30	28
31	Tulane*	26.94	31
32	Virginia Tech*	25.89	36
33	Georgia Tech*	25.59	30
34	Vanderbilt*	24.71	34
35	Penn State	23.89	39
36	LSU*	23.36	33
37	Notre Dame*	21.89	41
38	Oregon	21.73	35
39	Dartmouth	21.67	38
40	Washington*	21.57	37
41	Baylor*	19.84	43
42	Memphis*	19.77	42
43	Alabama*	19.75	40
44	NC State*	18.66	44
45	South Carolina (14-15)	18.19	50
46	Old Dominion*	16.08	45
47	Denver*	15.88	52
48	UC Santa Barbara*	15.85	47
49	Harvard*	14.39	49
50	Cornell*	13.99	51
51	Drake*	13.62	46
52	Princeton*	13.31	48
53	East Tennessee St* - IN	12.83	55
54	Purdue*	12.76	59
55	Lamar* - IN	12.42	54
56	Utah State	11.67	56
57	Indiana*	11.26	64
58	Wisconsin*	10.98	53
59	Boise State*	10.66	60
60	BYU*	10.61	57

* indicates at least one win over an opponent ranked outside the top 75


Rankings Chart That Excludes All Losses

Rank	School	9 Best Wins
1	Virginia	750.40
2	North Carolina	742.60
3	Wake Forest - IN	706.20
4	TCU	666.60
5	UCLA - IN	661.20
6	Ohio State	640.40
7	Texas Tech	610.60
8	Georgia	606.80
9	Oklahoma	586.30
10	Florida - IN	584.90

4/26/16 Women's Ranking Projections

Rank	School	Points	Previous
1	Florida - IN	76.97	3
2	Cal	75.48	1
3	North Carolina - IN	74.46	2
4	Georgia	70.36	4
5	Ohio State	65.86	6
6	Vanderbilt	64.66	5
7	Miami	60.27	7
8	Pepperdine*	53.51	9
9	Duke	51.91	8
10	Auburn	51.47	12
11	Michigan	48.55	10
12	Stanford - IN	48.13	13
13	South Carolina	47.89	11
14	Virginia	47.23	16
15	Oklahoma State	46.67	14
16	Georgia Tech	41.65	15
17	LSU	39.34	20
18	Texas Tech	38.75	17
19	Texas A&M	38.64	18
20	USC	36.78	19
21	Mississippi State	36.74	21
22	Arizona State	34.43	22
23	Kentucky	33.65	23
24	Texas*	31.19	24
25	UCLA	29.04	25
26	Wake Forest*	28.85	28
27	Syracuse*	28.84	27
28	Wichita State*	26.92	26
29	Tulsa* - IN	26.87	30
30	Northwestern*	24.03	39
31	Clemson*	23.71	29
32	Arkansas*	22.43	32
33	Kansas*	21.89	33
34	Virginia Tech*	21.59	31
35	TCU*	21.34	34
36	NC State*	20.84	35
37	Columbia	20.37	37
38	William & Mary* - IN	19.94	36
39	Princeton - IN	19.10	38
40	Baylor*	19.04	42
41	Rice* - IN	18.34	45
42	Ole Miss*	17.85	40
43	Notre Dame*	16.86	47
44	Georgia State* - IN	16.64	46
45	Denver*	15.65	43
46	Fresno State*	15.38	41
47	Florida International*	15.21	44
48	Dartmouth*	13.64	49
49	Penn*	13.52	48
50	Washington*	12.76	50
51	Illinois*	12.40	54
52	South Florida*	12.22	56
53	Alabama*	12.22	61
54	Harvard*	12.10	58
55	New Mexico*	12.05	52
56	Oregon*	11.98	55
57	Cornell*	11.91	59
58	Brown*	11.75	62
59	South Alabama*	11.32	53
60	Utah*	11.25	51

* indicates at least one win over an opponent ranked outside the top 75

Rank	School	9 Best Wins
1	Florida - IN	723.50
2	Cal	702.00
3	North Carolina - IN	692.50
4	Georgia	661.40
5	Vanderbilt	640.10
6	Ohio State	612.50
7	Miami	602.70
8	Duke	560.60
9	South Carolina	560.30
10	Auburn	540.40