4/12 Oracle/ITA Ranking Projections - NEW #1

North Carolina's stay at No. 1 has come to end with the team that they've beaten twice now taking over the top spot. Virginia rises up to No. 1 after picking up nice road wins over No. 14 Florida and No. 31 Georgia Tech while North Carolina falls down to No. 5 after its stunning loss to No. 55 Notre Dame. The Tar Heels still have the best collection of wins however its losses are the reason for the drop. Interesting note - UVA would have still overtaken UNC for the top spot even if UNC had beaten Notre Dame on Friday.

TCU stays at No. 2 after beating SMU, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State while Ohio State moves up two spots to No. 3 after rolling over Indiana and Purdue. The Buckeyes rise was largely tied to Oklahoma making a big jump last week while UCLA, which stays at No. 4, had a few of its best wins drop which is why it wasn't able to hold off Ohio State.


Georgia moves up one spot to No. 6 after a big win over No. 14 Florida while Wake Forest drops one spot to No. 7 despite its point total coming up week over week. Oklahoma and USC swapped spots at No. 8 and No. 9 due to Oklahoma picking up a road win at No. 17 Texas while USC beat No. 72 Utah and unranked Arizona. Texas Tech re-enters the top 10 at No. 10 after picking up a home win over No. 18 Tulsa. Texas A&M falls one spot to No. 11 after losing at Kentucky on Friday.

Stanford will be the big mover inside the top 50 after picking up top 40 wins over Oregon and Washington last week. I have the Cardinal projected to jump from No. 42 to No. 27.

Notre Dame, which pulled off the shocker of No. 1 North Carolina, is projected to move up 12 spots from No. 55 to No. 43. As a reference point, in year's past the at-large cutoff to qualify for the NCAAs has been right around 43.

This set of rankings used each team's nine best wins as will all the subsequent rankings up until the selection of the NCAA field on May 3.  Each of the teams in the projected top 20 had all nine countable wins over ranked opponents. Schools that have an * beside the school name have less than nine ranked wins so I had to do some guesswork on where the unranked wins fall in the rankings.


Cal and North Carolina remain at No. 1 and No. 2 while Georgia moves up one spot to No. 3, Florida moves up one spot to No. 4, and Ohio State falls two spots to No. 5.  The reason Georgia and Florida moved past Ohio State is because of the strength of their SEC opponents while the Big Ten is pretty weak outside of Michigan. Ohio State is rolling over everyone but unfortunately the teams are ranked so low that they're not helping them out.

Vanderbilt dropped one spot to No. 6 but they are only .14 behind Ohio State, Miami and Duke stay at No. 7 and No. 8 while Michigan comes up two spots to No. 9 after winning at Duke. South Carolina stays at No. 10 despite losing to Auburn. Pepperdine drops two spots to No. 11 due it's ninth win being ranked outside the top 75 - in fact Pepperdine is the only team in the top 20 that doesn't have all nine countable wins over ranked opponents.

Texas should be the big movers inside the top 50 after defeating both Texas Tech and TCU - I have the Longhorns projected to come up 10 spots to No. 25.

4/12/16 Men's Ranking Projections

Rank	School	Points	Previous
1	Virginia	72.25	3
2	TCU	70.46	2
3	Ohio State	66.57	5
4	UCLA	66.33	4
5	North Carolina	65.93	1
6	Georgia	59.97	7
7	Wake Forest	59.68	6
8	Oklahoma	53.73	9
9	USC	53.10	8
10	Texas Tech	49.27	11
11	Texas A&M	47.45	10
12	Arkansas	47.41	16
13	Florida	47.25	14
14	Oklahoma State	47.00	12
15	Northwestern	46.09	13
16	California	42.71	19
17	Illinois	40.64	15
18	Texas	40.52	17
19	South Florida	39.95	22
20	Kentucky	39.46	20
21	Michigan	38.24	21
22	Florida State*	37.37	23
23	Mississippi State*	33.45	24
24	Tulsa	32.59	18
25	Columbia	29.13	26
26	Rice*	27.50	28
27	Stanford*	27.13	42
28	SMU*	26.83	25
29	Tulane*	26.77	27
30	Georgia Tech*	24.89	31
31	San Diego	24.80	29
32	Ole Miss*	23.99	35
33	LSU*	23.67	39
34	Washington*	22.37	30
35	Alabama*	22.18	32
36	Dartmouth*	21.99	38
37	Baylor*	21.60	45
38	Memphis*	21.34	34
39	Penn State*	20.92	33
40	Virginia Tech*	20.11	40
41	Oregon*	19.74	36
42	NC State*	18.91	41
43	Notre Dame*	18.33	55
44	Old Dominion*	16.90	48
45	Vanderbilt*	16.78	43
46	Princeton*	16.47	37
47	Harvard*	15.84	50
48	Wisconsin*	15.75	44
49	Drake*	15.23	46
50	UC Santa Barbara*	14.95	47

* indicates at least one win over an opponent ranked outside the top 75


Rankings Chart That Excludes All Losses

Rank	School	9 Best Wins
1	North Carolina	698.90
2	Virginia	686.40
3	TCU	669.40
4	Wake Forest	631.60
5	Ohio State	619.10
6	UCLA	610.20
7	Georgia	569.70
8	Oklahoma	558.80
9	Texas A&M	531.40
10	USC	531.00

4/12/16 Women's Ranking Projections

Rank	School	Points	Previous
1	Cal	76.37	1
2	North Carolina	68.84	2
3	Georgia	68.51	4
4	Florida	65.32	6
5	Ohio State	64.74	3
6	Vanderbilt	64.60	5
7	Miami	60.18	7
8	Duke	53.10	8
9	Michigan	51.66	11
10	South Carolina	50.23	10
11	Pepperdine*	49.40	9
12	Auburn	44.05	13
13	Virginia	42.50	15
14	Texas Tech	39.44	12
15	Oklahoma State	38.98	14
16	Georgia Tech	38.44	17
17	Stanford	37.94	19
18	LSU	37.89	16
19	Texas A&M	35.68	18
20	Kentucky	34.35	21
21	USC	34.18	24
22	Arizona State	33.66	26
23	UCLA	30.62	23
24	Mississippi State*	29.86	25
25	Texas*	29.84	35
26	Wichita State*	28.78	22
27	Wake Forest*	28.51	20
28	Clemson*	26.61	31
29	Arkansas*	26.10	27
30	Virginia Tech*	25.51	30
31	Tulsa*	24.08	29
32	Syracuse*	22.14	32
33	TCU*	21.56	28
34	Columbia*	20.68	33
35	Kansas*	20.38	34
36	William & Mary*	18.31	36
37	Northwestern*	17.80	38
38	Fresno State*	16.92	39
39	NC State*	16.09	37
40	Denver*	15.29	40
41	Rice*	14.48	54
42	Baylor*	13.86	51
43	Georgia State*	13.84	46
44	Oregon*	13.71	41
45	Florida International*	13.65	44
46	Ole Miss*	13.27	42
47	South Alabama*	13.15	43
48	Illinois*	12.63	50
49	Utah*	11.90	59
50	Washington*	11.65	47

* indicates at least one win over an opponent ranked outside the top 75

Rank	School	9 Best Wins
1	Cal	687.30
2	North Carolina	647.10
3	Georgia	630.30
4	Florida	620.50
5	Vanderbilt	620.20
6	Ohio State	602.10
7	Miami	595.80
8	South Carolina	572.60
9	Duke	536.30
10	Michigan	526.90