4/19 Oracle/ITA Ranking Projections

Virginia stays at No. 1 after a big win on Friday over Wake Forest while UCLA surges up to No. 2 after its road win at USC.  North Carolina comes up to No. 3 after squeezing past Georgia Tech, TCU drops two spots down to No. 4 despite winning at Texas, and Ohio State drops two spots to No. 5 despite road wins over Minnesota and Wisconsin.

There were some teams that improved their chances of qualifying for the NCAAs while there were others that really hurt themselves with some untimely losses. It's also going to be a battle to see who finishes in the top 16 and thus gets to host a NCAA regional.

Weekend Winners:
Vanderbilt - some clutch, clutch play from the Commodores who won on the road at Mississippi State and Alabama
Oregon - picked up a big road win at Washington
Oklahoma State - was in danger of falling out of the top 16 but wins over Texas Tech and Baylor all but nailed down a host spot for the Cowboys
Notre Dame - won on the road and now its chances of getting an at-large are looking much better

Weekend Losers:
Arkansas - was in prime position to host a NCAA regional but a stunning loss at home knocked them all the way down to #18
NC State - lost at home to Notre Dame in a match that it really needed - still in contention for an at-large but will need to win at least one if not two matches at the ACC Tournament.
Wisconsin - lost at home to Penn State in a match that the Badgers really needed - will have to pull off an upset to have a reasonable chance of moving back up
Washington - had a chance to lock up an at-large spot but lost at home to Oregon - still would be in as of today but now nearing the bubble.
Alabama - had a chance to lock up an at-large spot but lost at home to Vanderbilt - firmly on the bubble now
Tulane - lost a tough one at Rice which means it'll be a No. 4 seed in the conference tournament - Tulane was a long shot to get into the top 16 but now it'll have to navigate these matches to win the conference tournament - Memphis (host), South Florida, SMU/Tulsa.

Neutral:
Penn State - picked up a nice road win at Wisconsin but then fell flat on its face and got stunned at Minnesota - as of this minute they'd still be in the field.

In the past the NCAA at-large cutoff has been right around 42 so for those teams in that 36-46 range they need to keep winning plus they have to hope there are no upsets in a few conference tournaments. Bubble teams will be rooting for San Diego to win the WCC, Rice to win the CUSA, and USF/Tulsa/SMU/Tulane to win the AAC. If one of those teams doesn't win the conference tournament then another at-large spot will probably be out the window which would lower the cut-off.

This set of rankings used each team's nine best wins as will all the subsequent rankings up until the selection of the NCAA field on May 3.  Each of the teams in the projected top 20 had all nine countable wins over ranked opponents. Schools that have an * beside the school name have less than nine ranked wins so I had to do some guesswork on where the unranked wins fall in the rankings.

LSU and Vanderbilt had the same round point totals but when taking further out LSU had the slight edge - same for Alabama and Baylor.

There are still some teams that haven't keyed in results from the weekend so I'm assuming they will - otherwise these numbers could change - nudge to Illinois and Texas A&M.
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Cal stays at No. 1 but its gap has shrunk from 7.53 to 3.59 after losing to Stanford on Saturday. North Carolina stays at No. 2, Florida moves up to No. 3 after winning on the road at Georgia, Georgia falls one spot to No. 4, Vanderbilt moves up one spot to No. 5, and Ohio State falls one spot to No. 6. The only other changed in the top 10 was Pepperdine and Michigan swapping spots at No. 9 and No. 10.

Weekend Winners:
Stanford - win over No. 1 California all but locked up a spot in the top 16 which means the Cardinal will host a NCAA regional
Oklahoma State - wins over Texas Tech and TCU should be enough to keep them in the top 16
Georgia Tech - big win over Duke pushed the Jackets up another spot and put them that much closer to hosting a regional
USC - beat rival UCLA plus they'll have a chance to win the Pac-12 win they play Stanford on Wednesday in Ojai. A win over Stanford might be enough to push the Trojans into the top 16.
Princeton - wins over Cornell and Columbia pushed the Tigers from No. 50 to inside the top 40 which puts them in good shape to get in as an at-large

Weekend Losers:
Texas Tech - loss to Oklahoma State and fell three spots to No. 17. Red Raiders only have one win over a top 25 opponent so to move back up they'll need to beat someone of substance.
Oregon - losses to Long Beach State and Loyola Marymount will likely end the season for the Ducks - were sitting at No. 44 but will drop to around No. 54.

There were some home/road keying errors that are being corrected and I noticed that the UNC women still haven't keyed in its win over Clemson - would slightly effect points total but not positioning.

4/19/16 Men's Ranking Projections

Rank	School	Points	Previous
1	Virginia	74.16	1
2	UCLA	70.57	4
3	North Carolina	69.96	5
4	TCU	69.44	2
5	Ohio State	66.53	3
6	Georgia	65.82	6
7	Wake Forest	59.02	7
8	USC	54.53	9
9	Texas Tech	53.89	10
10	Oklahoma	52.31	8
11	Florida	51.88	13
12	Oklahoma State	51.65	14
13	Texas A&M	48.83	11
14	Northwestern	47.94	15
15	California	46.45	16
16	Illinois	46.00	17
17	South Florida	43.45	19
18	Arkansas	42.74	12
19	Texas	40.66	18
20	Kentucky	39.69	20
21	Florida State	36.56	22
22	Michigan	33.82	21
23	Tulsa*	33.54	24
24	Columbia*	32.20	25
25	Mississippi State*	31.79	23
26	Rice*	30.00	26
27	SMU*	28.48	27
28	San Diego	26.65	31
29	Ole Miss*	26.15	32
30	Georgia Tech*	25.54	30
31	Tulane*	25.50	28
32	Stanford*	25.06	29
33	LSU*	23.26	33
34	Vanderbilt*	23.26	45
35	Oregon	22.91	41
36	Virginia Tech*	21.77	40
37	Washington*	20.95	35
38	Penn State*	20.65	39
39	Dartmouth*	20.45	36
40	Notre Dame*	20.24	43
41	Memphis*	20.23	38
42	Alabama*	20.16	34
43	Baylor*	20.16	37
44	NC State*	17.86	42
45	Old Dominion*	16.91	44
46	Drake*	15.66	49
47	UC Santa Barbara*	15.33	50
48	Princeton*	14.71	46
49	Denver*	14.53	51
50	Harvard*	14.44	48
51	South Carolina*	14.36	58
52	Cornell*	14.30	55
53	Wisconsin*	13.36	47
54	Lamar*	12.19	54
55	East Tennessee State*	11.61	52

* indicates at least one win over an opponent ranked outside the top 75


Rankings Chart That Excludes All Losses

Rank	School	9 Best Wins
1	North Carolina	734.60
2	Virginia	711.90
3	TCU	659.70
4	UCLA	649.20
5	Wake Forest	631.50
6	Ohio State	618.70
7	Georgia	618.70
8	USC	556.20
9	Oklahoma State	552.70
10	Texas Tech	549.70

4/19/16 Women's Ranking Projections

Rank	School	Points	Previous
1	Cal	74.26	1
2	North Carolina	71.77	2
3	Florida	70.78	4
4	Georgia	68.88	3
5	Vanderbilt	66.85	6
6	Ohio State	65.25	5
7	Miami	60.19	7
8	Duke	53.07	8
9	Pepperdine*	52.34	10
10	Michigan*	51.61	9
11	South Carolina	49.29	11
12	Auburn	46.51	12
13	Stanford	44.76	17
14	Oklahoma State	44.30	15
15	Georgia Tech	42.52	16
16	Virginia	41.83	13
17	Texas Tech	39.89	14
18	Texas A&M	38.74	19
19	USC	38.11	21
20	LSU	36.71	18
21	Mississippi State	34.79	24
22	Arizona State	33.25	22
23	Kentucky	33.22	20
24	Texas*	31.17	25
25	UCLA	29.32	23
26	Wichita State*	26.96	26
27	Syracuse*	26.63	32
28	Wake Forest*	26.25	27
29	Clemson*	25.12	28
30	Tulsa*	24.38	31
31	Virginia Tech*	23.04	30
32	Arkansas*	22.70	29
33	TCU*	21.65	33
34	Kansas*	21.24	35
35	NC State*	21.04	38
36	William & Mary*	20.40	36
37	Columbia	19.56	34
38	Princeton	19.04	50
39	Northwestern*	17.84	40
40	Fresno State*	16.83	37
41	Baylor*	15.90	45
42	Ole Miss*	15.77	47
43	Denver*	15.03	39
44	Florida International*	14.98	43
45	Rice*	14.73	41
46	Georgia State*	13.84	42
47	Notre Dame*	13.78	51
48	Penn*	13.10	52
49	Dartmouth*	12.67	54
50	Long Beach State*	12.56	66
51	South Alabama*	12.37	46
52	Washington*	11.92	55
53	Utah*	11.79	49
54	Oregon*	11.68	44
55	Illinois*	11.63	48

* indicates at least one win over an opponent ranked outside the top 75

Rank	School	9 Best Wins
1	Cal	698.00
2	Florida	672.40
3	North Carolina	667.50
4	Georgia	647.50
5	Vanderbilt	641.80
6	Ohio State	606.80
7	Miami	589.90
8	South Carolina	561.90
9	Duke	557.20
10	Michigan*	516.10