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Monday, March 7, 2016

3/8 Ranking Projections - Cal Women #1

North Carolina stays at No. 1 for another week while Ohio State jumps up from No. 4 to No. 2 after a nice road win over Oklahoma on Sunday. TCU stays at No. 3 while Virginia falls from No. 2 to No. 4 due to a few of its best wins falling the previous week.

This week's rankings take into account each teams five best wins just as last week's ranking did and just as next week's rankings will.

Kentucky was the big mover inside the top 20 with the Wildcats expected to rise from No. 22 to No. 12 after picking up wins over Arkansas and Ole Miss.  Tulane will move up from No. 35 to No. 22 after picking up nice ranked wins over Memphis and LSU. NC State's road win over No. 7 Wake Forest will be enough to propel the Wolfpack back inside the top 30 after dropping down to No. 40 last week.

25 of the 40 schools in my projected top 40 have five wins over current top 75 opponents. Schools that have an * beside the school name have less than five ranked wins so I had to do some guesswork on where the unranked wins fall in the rankings.

The Cal women have retaken the top spot moving past Ohio State by .60 points. Georgia had a nice weekend picking up a pair of top 30 road wins so they'll jump up from 7 to 3. North Carolina drops one spot from 3 to 4 while Vanderbilt comes up 3 spots from 8 to 5.

Miami made a nice jump from 21 up to 9 after beating Florida State and Notre Dame and Auburn jumps up from 29 to 11 after beating #9 LSU and #14 Texas A&M.

21 of the 40 schools in my projected top 40 have five wins over current top 75 opponents.


3/8/16 Men's Ranking Projections

RankSchoolPointsPrevious
1North Carolina89.241
2Ohio State74.144
3TCU71.453
4Virginia70.742
5Oklahoma State66.555
6UCLA65.006
7Texas A&M 61.568
8Illinois56.5511
9Wake Forest55.987
10Texas Tech54.5710
11Northwestern49.879
12Kentucky47.3622
13Oklahoma46.6913
14California*42.4018
15USC*41.7312
16South Florida 41.6717
17Georgia41.6116
18Baylor36.0714
19Texas*33.7115
20Oregon32.8321
21Ole Miss*31.7926
22Tulane*31.3535
23Penn State30.9824
24Michigan30.6019
25Florida*29.6030
26Tulsa27.3120
27NC State*26.9440
28San Diego24.8331
29Princeton24.7838
30Columbia* 24.6925
31Memphis*24.0023
32Arkansas*22.8727
33Rice*21.9629
34Old Dominion*20.8928
35Drake20.5836
36Washington*20.1345
37Virginia Tech*19.7153
38Georgia Tech19.6234
39SMU*19.39NR
40Denver19.0148

3/8/16 Women's Ranking Projections

RankSchoolPointsPrevious
1Cal79.502
2Ohio State78.901
3Georgia73.007
4North Carolina71.083
5Vanderbilt62.508
6Michigan56.194
7Texas Tech52.125
8Duke51.696
9Miami47.1821
10Virginia*46.2116
11Auburn*45.6929
12South Carolina42.5612
13Oklahoma State41.5410
14Wichita State39.5613
15LSU39.469
16Texas A&M38.5714
17Pepperdine*37.3511
18Florida36.2215
19Kentucky34.8117
20Fresno State34.2222
21Tulsa32.5618
22Wake Forest32.2144
23Stanford32.0820
24UCLA*27.4627
25Kansas27.3723
26Ole Miss*25.2726
27Arizona State*24.6036
28Mississippi State*22.1125
29Virginia Tech*21.8539
30Denver*20.7458
31Texas*20.43T73
32Syracuse*20.2224
33Georgia Tech*20.0933
34William & Mary*19.9530
35Oregon*19.7328
36NC State*19.4955
37Arkansas*19.1735
38Northwestern*18.9742
39Columbia*18.8132
40Clemson*17.1619

* means this school has less than 5 top 75 wins

10 comments:

texastennis said...

where do you have SMU?

Bobby said...

My sheet initially left them off - when I added the number up they slid up to #39 after that nice win over Tulsa.

Anonymous said...

Stanford doesn't make the top 40? I'd say they at least belong in the 31-40 range.

Bobby said...

They'll be in the 41-45 range - they just don't have the quality wins yet but they'll get there. I still think they are a top 20 team but they just need to get that big signature win to prove to themselves that they belong up there.

JF said...

Stanford is dangerous. A handful of 4-3 matches that go either way. Outdoors in Apr/May they will be a tough out.

Anonymous said...

any idea how Washington moved up that many spots with just a win over an unranked Minnesota this week?

Bobby said...

Texas and ETSU both jumped up and those were Washington's best wins plus Cal Poly re-entered the top 75 too. Minnesota win didn't factor in.

Anonymous said...

Ok thank you. That makes sense.

Erik said...

Bobby, on singles here...I know it's early but tough to see Mackie MacDonald at #9 in the nation. Assuming the no Fall play hurt him here? Full disclosure...UCLA grad so massively biased. Thanks for your great coverage!

Bobby said...

Right - not playing in the fall plus missing the first three-dual matches hurt him - he's only played 8 matches and he'll really only play two more highly ranked opponents the rest of the regular season (Fawcett/Goransson).

Normally if USC had a top 20 #1 player that'd help but since they don't he won't get any boost from beating de Vroome or Crystal. His ceiling this season may be right around #4 or #5 because I don't think he'll have a resume as good as the guys above him.

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