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Wednesday, March 30, 2016

3/29 Oracle/ITA Women's Rankings Release - Top 7 Profiles

California stays at No. 1 for the fourth week in a row with its margin over No. 2 Ohio State decreasing slightly from 8.81 to 7.72.  North Carolina and Georgia swapped spots yet again at No. 3 and No. 4 while Vanderbilt holds at No. 5 although the Commodores are nipping at the heels of Georgia.

Florida comes up one spot to No. 6, Miami falls one spot to No. 7, South Carolina holds at No. 8 despite its loss to Florida, Pepperdine rises two spots to No. 9 and Duke holds firm at No. 10.

Florida State was the biggest climber of the week after going from unranked to No. 57 while Baylor also made a big move up from No. 66 to No. 50 after beating Northwestern.

DePaul took the biggest tumble dropping 15 spots from No. 57 to No. 72 after its previous ranked wins over Minnesota and Indiana were downgraded due to MN dropping 12 spots and IU dropping 7 spots.

The following teams moved up at least 7 spots versus the last rankings - movement in ( ):
#20 UCLA (+12)
#21 Tulsa (+7)
#50 Baylor (+16)
#52 UNLV (+12)
#53 Illinois (+15)
#57 Florida State (at least +19)
#67 Long Beach State (at least +9)

The following teams dropped down at least 7 spots versus the last rankings (still ranked):
#25 Texas A&M (-8)
#26 Arizona State (-7)
#61 Washington (-9)
#62 Washington State (-7)
#64 Rice (-10)
#70 Minnesota (-8)
#71 Missouri (-12)
#72 DePaul (-15)
#74 Utah (-9)

These 4 teams entered the rankings after being unranked and the reason why they moved up:
#57 Florida State - defeated #55 Boston College plus a past win over Old Dominion was upgraded after the Monarchs jumped 10 spots the previous week.
#67 Long Beach State - picked up a ranked win over Dartmouth plus a win over Hawaii who was ranked in the 96-105 bucket.
#73 North Texas - was idle last week however past wins over Penn and Louisiana Tech were upgraded when Penn came up 8 spots and LA Tech entered the rankings this past week.
#75 Nebraska - picked up a ranked win over Minnesota

These 4 teams dropped out of the rankings with last week's rankings in ( ):
Arizona (71) - beat Sacramento State and UAB last week however previous ranked wins over San Diego and San Jose State were downgraded when both dropped out of the rankings last week. Arizona will probably re-enter the rankings next week with Long Beach State coming in this week.
Purdue (72) - lost to Michigan and unranked Michigan State
Xavier (73) - was idle last week however its ranked win over Indiana was downgraded when IU dropped 7 spots in the rankings.
Santa Clara (75) - lost to unranked St. Mary's plus a previous loss to San Diego hurt more when USD dropped out of the rankings

Ranking Notes: My projections had most of the teams in the right order however my point totals were off on many. I spent a couple of hours trying to figure out what the problem was and then I noticed the teams that were off all had a couple of common opponents. I was able to figure out that there was a change in the rankings after they were published last week but the new updated rankings weren't known to everyone. I talked to the the ITA this morning and they confirmed there was an additional result that was keyed into their system in the roughly 60 second window between when the rankings were run and when they were finalized. The result impacted the rankings of 13 different teams but the issue has now been correct and the 3/22 rankings were republished to reflect those changes which I've listed below.

Fresno State went from #38 to #34
Texas from #34 to #35
Oregon from #35 to #36
Northwestern from #36 to #37
William & Mary from #37 to #38
UC Santa Barbara from #69 to unranked
Louisiana Tech from #70 to #69
Arizona from #71 to #70
Purdue from #72 to #71
Xavier from #73 to #72
Winthrop from #74 to #73
Santa Clara from #75 to #74
Brown from unranked to #75


Here is the ITA's release which breaks it down by conference affiliation.

Below I'll breakdown the Top 7 looking at the 7 best wins that were used in the rankings this week along with other quality ranked wins. I also listed the point totals gained from the best wins and losses to come up with the computer score.  


California (15-0) is No. 1 for the fourth week in a row after picking up wins over Utah and Colorado.  
  • 7 Best Wins (556.6): #2 Ohio State, #3 North Carolina, #7 Florida, #11 Pepperdine, #12 Virginia, at #19 Arizona State, at #29 USC 
  • Other Quality Wins: at #32 UCLA, #52 Washington, #65 Utah, at #70 Arizona
  • Losses (7.0): None
  • Computer Score:  556.6/7.0 = 79.51 (was 83.62)
  • What's Coming Up: #38 Oregon (4/1), #18 Stanford (4/3), at #62 Washington State (4/8), at #61 Washington (4/9)
  • Comments: Cal continued to roll along but it faces its biggest test since the National Indoors when Stanford comes to Berkeley for the Big Slam. 

Ohio State (17-2) remains at No. 2 after taking last week off. 
  • 7 Best Wins (524.1): #5 Vanderbilt (2X), at #9 Michigan, #11 Pepperdine, #19 Arizona State, #22 Georgia Tech, at #30 TCU
  • Other Quality Wins: #34 Fresno State#58 Tennessee, #62 Minnesota, at #66 Baylor
  • Losses (7.3): #1 California, at #6 Miami FL
  • Computer Score:  524.1/7.3 = 71.79 (was 74.81)
  • What's Coming Up: at Rutgers (4/2), at Maryland (4/3), Iowa (4/9), #75 Nebraska (4/10)
  • Comments: The Buckeyes are back at this week facing a pair of unranked conference opponents. It'll be smooth sailing until the Big Ten tournament. 

North Carolina (20-2) moves up one spot from No. 4 to No. 3 after winning at Syracuse and beating Notre Dame at home. The Tar Heels also beat Duke on Tuesday although that win won't factor in until next week. 
  • 7 Best Wins (521.3): #3 Georgia, #6 Miami, at #12 Virginia, #14 Wake Forest, #15 LSU, #17 Texas A&M, #28 Tulsa
  • Other Quality Wins: #10 Duke, at #41 Syracuse, #42 Notre Dame, #48 Alabama, Florida State
  • Losses (7.3): #1 California, at #9 Michigan
  • Computer Score:  521.3/7.3 = 71.41 (was 70.43)
  • What's Coming Up:  Louisville (4/2), #42 NC State (4/6), at #31 Virginia Tech (4/8), #55 Boston College (4/10)
  • Comments: The Tar Heels missed out on being No. 2 but just .38 points and with the win over Duke coming into play next week I'd expect to see UNC move up to No. 2.

Georgia (13-2) drops down one spot from No. 3 to No. 4 after winning at Kentucky but falling at Vanderbilt. Six of Georgia's best wins from the previous week dropped last week so that hurt its point total as well
  • 7 Best Wins (480.4): #9 Michigan, #12 Virginia, #13 Texas Tech, #16 Auburn, at #22 Georgia Tech, at #23 Kentucky, at #27 Mississippi State
  • Other Quality Wins: #25 Clemson,  at #39 Ole Miss. #48 Alabama, #58 Tennessee
  • Losses (7.2): #4 North Carolina, #5 Vanderbilt
  • Computer Score: 480.4/7.2 = 66.72 (was 72.51)
  • What's Coming Up: #24 Arkansas (3/31), #71 Missouri (4/2), at #15 LSU (4/8), at #25 Texas A&M (4/10)
  • Comments: The Dawgs continue SEC play this weekend with both Arkansas and Missouri coming to Athens. Arkansas will give them a tougher challenge than Missouri but Georgia should win both comfortably. 

Vanderbilt (12-4) stays at No. 5 but is less than 1 point behind No. 4 Georgia after defeating both Georgia and Tennessee last weekend.
  • 7 Best Wins (501): #3 Georgia, #10 Duke, #12 Virginia,  #15 LSU, #17 Texas A&M, #20 Stanford, #23 Kentucky
  • Other Quality Wins: #31 Denver, at #37 Northwestern, #58 Tennessee, at #66 Baylor, #75 Brown
  • Losses (7.6): #2 Ohio State (2X), #7 Florida, #8 South Carolina, 
  • Computer Score: 501/7.6 = 65.92 (was 61.64)
  • What's Coming Up: at #28 Mississippi State (3/31), at #36 Ole Miss (4/2), at #71 Missouri (4/8), at #24 Arkansas (4/10)
  • Comments: The Commodores hit the road for the next two weeks with a trip to Mississippi this weekend. 

Florida (12-2) rises one spot from No. 7 to No. 6 after going on the road to Columbia, South Carolina, and defeating No. 8 South Carolina. 

  • 7 Best Wins (466.7): #5 Vanderbilt, at #8 South Carolina, at #27 Mississippi State, #23 Kentucky, #25 Clemson, #26 Arkansas, #29 USC
  • Other Quality Wins: at #39 Ole Miss, #56 South Florida, #59 Missouri, #66 Baylor, at Florida State
  • Losses (7.5): at #1 Cal, at #20 Stanford
  • Computer Score:  466.7/7.5 = 62.23 (was 56.69)
  • What's Coming Up: #15 LSU (3/31), #17 Texas A&M (4/2), at #48 Alabama (4/8), at #16 Auburn  (4/10) 
  • Comments: The Gators have won seven in a row but they'll have to keep the hammer down with LSU and Texas A&M coming to town this weekend. I think Florida's win streak will be at 11 when they head to Georgia on 4/15 with that match playing a big role in determining the regular season SEC Champion. 

Miami (12-4) drops one spot from No. 6 to No. 7 despite beating both Virginia and Boston College. The reason for the drop was due to Florida picking up a top 10 win on the road. 
  • 7 Best Wins (456): #2 Ohio State, #12 Virginia, at #16 Auburn, #18 Oklahoma State, #22 Georgia Tech, #33 Virginia Tech,  #40 Columbia
  • Other Quality Wins: #42 Notre Dame, #53 Boston College, at Florida State
  • Losses (7.8): #4 North Carolina, #9 Michigan, #10 Duke, #13 Texas Tech
  • Computer Score:  456/7.8 = 58.46 (was 58.63)
  • What's Coming Up:  at #29 Clemson (4/2), at #19 Wake Forest (4/8), at #42 NC Sate (4/9), #40 Syracuse (4/15), Louisville (4/17)
  • Comments: The Canes have played six of its last seven matches at home which means it's time for a multi-match road trip. This weekend they go to Clemson and the following weekend its a trip to North Carolina to face Wake Forest and NC State.




3/29 Oracle/ITA Women's Rankings

RankAvgSchoolPrevious Rank
179.51California1
271.79Ohio State University2
371.41North Carolina4
466.72University of Georgia3
565.92Vanderbilt University5
662.23University of Florida7
758.46University of Miami (Florida)6
855.14University of South Carolina8
955.07Pepperdine11
1054.92Duke University10
1148.83University of Michigan9
1245.07University of Virginia12
1343.9Texas Tech University13
1443.37Auburn University16
1540.25LSU15
1637.49Georgia Tech22
1736.07Oklahoma State University18
1835.79Stanford20
1933.39Wake Forest University14
2032.59UCLA32
2131.82University of Tulsa28
2231.74Wichita State University21
2331.63University of Kentucky23
2431.55University of Arkansas26
2531.28Texas A&M University17
2629.16Arizona State University19
2727.95University of Southern California29
2827.31Mississippi State University27
2926.73Clemson University25
3025.07University of Kansas24
3123.04Virginia Tech33
3220.84College of William and Mary37
3320.47University of Denver31
3420.45University of Texas at Austin34
3520.28TCU30
3620.02University of Mississippi39
3718.65Columbia University40
3817.52University of Oregon35
3917.2Fresno State38
4016.57Syracuse University41
4115.88Northwestern University36
4215.73North Carolina State43
4315.48University of South Alabama45
4413.46University of Notre Dame42
4512.38University of New Mexico44
4612.24Florida International University (FIU)49
4711.94Georgia State University47
4811.67University of Texas at Arlington50
4911.63Dartmouth College46
5011.62Baylor University66
5111.26University of Alabama48
5210.83UNLV64
5310.15University of Illinois68
5410.02Harvard University51
5510.02Boston College53
569.9University of South Florida56
579.85Florida State UniversityNR
589.85Old Dominion University61
599.75Princeton University60
609.46Indiana University-Bloomington63
619.42University of Washington52
628.27Washington State University55
638.2University of Tennessee58
648.14Rice University54
658.13UC Santa Barbara69
668.05Louisiana Tech University70
678.04Long Beach State UniversityNR
688.02Winthrop University74
697.76University of Pennsylvania67
707.7University of Minnesota62
717.67Univ. of Missouri, Columbia59
727.22DePaul University57
737.13University of North TexasNR
746.8University of Utah65
756.75University of NebraskaNR

8 comments:

marcoforehand said...

Thank you for the time and effort you put into this. I particularly appreciated the breakdown of the top seven.

Anonymous said...

Watch out for Stanford...Zhoa is back for good, Davidson is healthy, Hardebeck is on a tear...If Yee can play anywhere close to the hype, they could contend for or win the title

Anonymous said...

Not fond of the fact Zhao misses both fall and winter quarters and rejoins the team for only 5 regular season matches plus the Ncaas.

Anonymous said...

What is the NCAA rule on this? Is there a minimum amount of matches or enrollment to be eligible?

Bobby said...

This is from the NCAA Championship manual:

Student-athletes selected for the singles championships, both automatic and at-large selections, must have results for a minimum of 13 completed singles matches during the year, with a minimum of six matches in the spring, at the institution which the student-athlete will represent at the NCAA championships.

Doubles teams selected for the doubles championships, both automatic and at-large selections, must have started a minimum of 10 doubles matches with the same partner during the year at the institution which the team will represent at the NCAA championships. Of the 10 matches, eight must be completed, with four of the eight matches completed in the spring. The tennis committee may entertain appeals to the minimum match number to review extenuating circumstances.

Anonymous said...

For team eligibility do you just have to be an enrolled student with passing grades?

Bobby said...

The enrolled part is a definite yes - I guess your grades don't come into play until the end of a semester/quarter but if your failing at that point you can't play.

AR Hacked Off said...

eligibility comes down to progress to towards degree, are players making enough progress towards degree with passed hours, it is possible Zhao had more than enough hours to keep her eligible or maybe she was doing online courses to maintain enrollment, but the GPA is a joke by NCAA at one point it was maintain a 1.8 GPA, in which most schools would have kicked you out by that time.

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