Well it has been one heck of a regular season but we are now officially headed to the postseason. The final regular season rankings were run twice to account for all the weekend's results and this set of rankings will be used to determine the NCAA Tournament field.
There were a few spots where the difference between two teams was a matter of tenths of a point with the cut-off teams of Memphis and Alabama only separated by .28. Now I do have to say that these are just projections and there is some educated guesswork involved on the unranked wins so it is possible that Alabama could end up ahead of Memphis if one of my projections was off.
* indicates at least one win over an opponent ranked outside the top 75
Potential Round of 16
64 teams qualify for the NCAA Tournament with that number comprised of 31 automatic qualifiers and 33 at-large bids (the AQs are at the bottom of the link). The at-large cut-off for the men's field ended up at 42 since there were 9 conference champions that were ranked in the top 42.
There were a few spots where the difference between two teams was a matter of tenths of a point with the cut-off teams of Memphis and Alabama only separated by .28. Now I do have to say that these are just projections and there is some educated guesswork involved on the unranked wins so it is possible that Alabama could end up ahead of Memphis if one of my projections was off.
Here was the breakdown on the final two teams vying for that last at-large spot.
#41 Memphis (19.76)
9 Best Wins - at #27 Ole Miss, at #30 SMU, at #35 Vanderbilt, #51 Harvard, #47 Denver, at San Diego State, at Middle Tennessee State, VCU, Louisville
#43 Alabama (19.48)
9 Best Wins - at #27 Ole Miss, at #36 LSU, at #46 South Carolina, #53 Princeton, #62 Georgia State, #63 Auburn, at North Florida, Miami, UAB
Memphis had five top 75 wins while Alabama had six since North Florida will drop out this week. I had Memphis's non-top 75 wins ranked as follows - San Diego State (76-85), Middle Tennessee State & VCU (86-95), and Louiville (106-115). I had Alabama's non-top 75 wins ranked as follows - North Florida and Miami (76-85) and UAB (86-95)
I feel very confident about San Diego State, VCU, North Florida, and Miami but not as confident about Middle Tennessee State, Louisville, and UAB. Those last three have been in the same place for about the last three weeks and were ranked in those same spots when the last set of rankings was done on April 26. If MTSU were to drop down from 86-95 to 96-105 that four point drop would be enough to push Alabama ahead of Memphis by a hair. It is really too close to call so we won't know for sure until selection time at 5:30 p.m. eastern on Tuesday.
The other set of teams that was as close as it gets is Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech at 32 and 33 with GT getting the 32 spot by .01. Now it really doesn't matter that much if you are a 2 or 3 seed because you're going to be playing the same caliber team in the first round.
Illinois and Baylor were the teams inside the top 45 that improved their stock the most in the final week of the season. Illinois passed South Florida due to its wins over Penn State and Northwestern while Baylor took itself off the bubble with a HUGE win at Oklahoma State.
The reason UNC Wilmington dropped so many spots despite not playing last week is because its loss to Charleston from two weekends ago wasn't keyed in until this past week.
9 Best Wins - at #27 Ole Miss, at #30 SMU, at #35 Vanderbilt, #51 Harvard, #47 Denver, at San Diego State, at Middle Tennessee State, VCU, Louisville
#43 Alabama (19.48)
9 Best Wins - at #27 Ole Miss, at #36 LSU, at #46 South Carolina, #53 Princeton, #62 Georgia State, #63 Auburn, at North Florida, Miami, UAB
Memphis had five top 75 wins while Alabama had six since North Florida will drop out this week. I had Memphis's non-top 75 wins ranked as follows - San Diego State (76-85), Middle Tennessee State & VCU (86-95), and Louiville (106-115). I had Alabama's non-top 75 wins ranked as follows - North Florida and Miami (76-85) and UAB (86-95)
I feel very confident about San Diego State, VCU, North Florida, and Miami but not as confident about Middle Tennessee State, Louisville, and UAB. Those last three have been in the same place for about the last three weeks and were ranked in those same spots when the last set of rankings was done on April 26. If MTSU were to drop down from 86-95 to 96-105 that four point drop would be enough to push Alabama ahead of Memphis by a hair. It is really too close to call so we won't know for sure until selection time at 5:30 p.m. eastern on Tuesday.
The other set of teams that was as close as it gets is Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech at 32 and 33 with GT getting the 32 spot by .01. Now it really doesn't matter that much if you are a 2 or 3 seed because you're going to be playing the same caliber team in the first round.
Illinois and Baylor were the teams inside the top 45 that improved their stock the most in the final week of the season. Illinois passed South Florida due to its wins over Penn State and Northwestern while Baylor took itself off the bubble with a HUGE win at Oklahoma State.
The reason UNC Wilmington dropped so many spots despite not playing last week is because its loss to Charleston from two weekends ago wasn't keyed in until this past week.
5/3 Oracle/ITA Men's Ranking Projections
| Rank | School | Points | Previous |
| 1 | Virginia | 78.43 | 1 |
| 2 | UCLA - IN | 71.51 | 2 |
| 3 | North Carolina | 70.63 | 3 |
| 4 | TCU - IN | 70.18 | 5 |
| 5 | Ohio State - IN | 69.72 | 4 |
| 6 | Wake Forest - IN | 65.14 | 6 |
| 7 | Georgia | 64.36 | 7 |
| 8 | Texas Tech | 59.94 | 8 |
| 9 | Florida - IN | 57.25 | 9 |
| 10 | Oklahoma | 55.88 | 10 |
| 11 | USC | 54.45 | 11 |
| 12 | Texas A&M | 49.99 | 14 |
| 13 | California | 49.79 | 12 |
| 14 | Northwestern | 48.93 | 13 |
| 15 | Illinois | 47.72 | 17 |
| 16 | Oklahoma State | 47.01 | 15 |
| 17 | South Florida - IN | 44.34 | 16 |
| 18 | Texas | 40.37 | 18 |
| 19 | Arkansas | 39.73 | 19 |
| 20 | Kentucky | 38.11 | 20 |
| 21 | Florida State | 34.74 | 21 |
| 22 | Mississippi State | 34.49 | 22 |
| 23 | Tulsa | 33.88 | 23 |
| 24 | Michigan | 32.44 | 24 |
| 25 | Columbia - IN | 32.11 | 25 |
| 26 | Rice* - IN | 31.16 | 26 |
| 27 | Ole Miss* | 28.83 | 29 |
| 28 | San Diego - IN | 28.27 | 30 |
| 29 | Stanford* | 27.87 | 27 |
| 30 | SMU* | 27.43 | 28 |
| 31 | Tulane* | 26.27 | 31 |
| 32 | Georgia Tech | 25.12 | 33 |
| 33 | Virginia Tech* | 25.11 | 32 |
| 34 | Baylor* | 24.61 | 42 |
| 35 | Vanderbilt* | 24.57 | 34 |
| 36 | LSU* | 23.29 | 36 |
| 37 | Penn State | 22.80 | 35 |
| 38 | Oregon | 22.65 | 38 |
| 39 | Washington* | 21.61 | 40 |
| 40 | Notre Dame* | 21.17 | 37 |
| 41 | Dartmouth | 20.96 | 39 |
| 42 | Memphis* | 19.76 | 41 |
| 43 | Alabama* | 19.48 | 43 |
| 44 | NC State* | 18.05 | 44 |
| 45 | UC Santa Barbara* - IN | 17.83 | 46 |
| 46 | South Carolina (14-15) | 17.79 | 45 |
| 47 | Denver* - IN | 16.73 | 48 |
| 48 | Old Dominion* | 15.01 | 47 |
| 49 | Cornell* | 14.26 | 50 |
| 50 | Drake* | 14.07 | 51 |
| 51 | Harvard* | 13.76 | 49 |
| 52 | Purdue* | 13.55 | 53 |
| 53 | Princeton* | 13.38 | 52 |
| 54 | Pepperdine* | 12.37 | 61 |
| 55 | Lamar* - IN | 12.08 | 55 |
| 56 | East Tennessee St* - IN | 11.66 | 54 |
| 57 | Boise State* | 11.13 | 59 |
| 58 | Utah State* | 10.99 | 56 |
| 59 | Indiana* | 10.95 | 58 |
| 60 | Wisconsin* | 10.83 | 57 |
| 61 | BYU* | 10.64 | 60 |
| 62 | Georgia State* | 9.97 | 62 |
| 63 | Auburn* | 9.86 | 63 |
| 64 | Cal Poly* | 9.71 | 68 |
| 65 | St. John's* - IN | 8.79 | 66 |
| 66 | Wichita State* - IN | 8.78 | NR |
| 67 | Iowa* | 8.54 | 73 |
| 68 | New Mexico* | 8.52 | 64 |
| 69 | Pacific* | 8.21 | 67 |
| 70 | Loyola Marymount* | 8.14 | 69 |
| 71 | Nebraska* | 8.01 | NR |
| 72 | UNC Wilmington* | 7.99 | 65 |
| 73 | UC Davis* | 7.71 | 70 |
| 74 | Utah* | 7.44 | 72 |
| 75 | Duke* | 7.30 | 71 |
* indicates at least one win over an opponent ranked outside the top 75
Based on these rankings these teams should be seeded in these buckets:
1-16 (not necessarily in order)
Virginia
UCLA
North Carolina
TCU
Ohio State
Wake Forest
Georgia
Texas Tech
Florida
Oklahoma
USC
Texas A&M
California
Northwestern
Illinois
Oklahoma State
17-32
South Florida
Texas
Arkansas
Kentucky
Florida State
Mississippi State
Tulsa
Michigan
Columbia
Rice
Ole Miss
San Diego
Stanford
SMU
Tulane
Georgia Tech
33-48
Virginia Tech
Baylor
Vanderbilt
LSU
Penn State
Oregon
Washington
Notre Dame
Dartmouth
Memphis
UC Santa Barbara
Denver
Lamar
East Tennessee St
St. John's
Wichita State
49-64
UNLV
North Florida
Western Michigan
UT Arlington
College of Charleston
George Washington
Tennessee Tech
Valparaiso
New Mexico State
Weber State
Coastal Carolina
Monmouth
Bryant
Army
South Carolina State
Jackson State
Since the tournament committee usually values H2H I think this may end up being your top 16 seeds and potential round of 16 pairings if each won their own regional.
Potential Round of 16
#1 Virginia vs. #16 Oklahoma State
#8 Georgia vs. #9 Florida
#4 TCU vs. #13 California
#5 Ohio State vs. #12 Texas A&M
#6 Wake Forest vs. #11 Oklahoma
#7 Texas Tech vs. #10 USC
#3 UCLA vs. #14 Illinois
#2 North Carolina vs. #15 Northwestern
Notes:
#3 North Carolina had over #2 UCLA
#8 Texas Tech had the H2H win over #7 Georgia
#11 USC had the H2H win over #10 Oklahoma and #9 Florida
#15 Illinois had the 2-1 H2H advantage over #14 Northwestern
*Last year TCU was two spots lower than Illinois and one spot lower than Texas A&M in the final rankings and had H2H over both but they only jumped A&M and not Illinois. I was originally thinking UNC could go all the way to No. 1 but now I think they probably only go as high as No. 2. Same goes for USC with H2H wins over OU and Florida - think they'll probably just go to No. 10 and not No. 9.
*Last year TCU was two spots lower than Illinois and one spot lower than Texas A&M in the final rankings and had H2H over both but they only jumped A&M and not Illinois. I was originally thinking UNC could go all the way to No. 1 but now I think they probably only go as high as No. 2. Same goes for USC with H2H wins over OU and Florida - think they'll probably just go to No. 10 and not No. 9.
I'll find out just like the rest of you on Tuesday but I can assure you it's going to be a crazy NCAA Tournament.
21 comments:
Hey Bobby would you have any idea on what the final cut for the singles tournament will look like?
The Alabama wins over Ole Miss, LSU, South Carolina, and UNF were all away. Does that have any affect on your calculations?
Thanks for all the work on this - it's much appreciated. If Wake had beaten NC State, would the Deacs have moved up to #3?
If it was based off last week's rankings it would have been 57
North Carolina would have edged them for #3 - WF would have been #4
I had those bonus points added in
Does the NCAA seeding committee take into consideration matches like WFU-NCSU. According to your records that one match is the difference in Wake being #4 vs. #6 and the NCAA knows that Wake's top 2 players were out of the country playing Davis Cup. Then if UNC just edges us out, and we beat UNC, maybe Wake should be the 3 seed.
Do you foresee any changes in the singles rankings this week that would cause anyone to drop out?
Bobby, great writing as always. Has there been precedence where a team jumps two spots (or more) based on H2H results?
They should let YOU make the draw!
Bobby, I was looking at the OSU website to see their summary of the Big Ten tourney and I noticed at the bottom of their page a Logo that proclaims them an IMG school. Can you explain what that means and what advantages an IMG school could offer a potential recruit? THANKS
IMG in addition to having a sports academy in Florida is also a huge collegiate sports marketing company - if you've ever listened to a college football or basketball game on the radio more than likely they've been presented by IMG.
Many of the larger schools are on the IMG platform so it just means the schools have someone helping them get more exposure - don't real see an angle where that would help recruiting unless the school says IMG will help get your name out there but schools that don't have IMG have someone else that probably does the same thing.
when is the selection show?
In 2013-14 Texas A&M jumped up 2 spots even though they hadn't beaten one of the teams it passed. That same year Georgia and Kentucky both dropped 2 spots due to losing to both teams behind them.
Texas A&M was a little bit of an oddity because in the final rankings Georgia was 8, Texas 9, and Texas A&M 10 so you would have thought Texas would have been 8 and A&M 9 but for some reason A&M got the nod.
Women at 5pm Tuesday and men at 530p
John Snow Lives~
If you really want to know who suffers from the Wake/State fiasco. Ask which top 3 team wants Wake in the quarter-finals...
The more I look at it I think Virginia stays at #1 with UNC #2 and UCLA #3.
Last season TCU was ranked #6 in the final regular season poll and it had H2H wins over #4 Illinois and #5 Texas A&M but it only jumped A&M and not Illinois. If that's the precedence then UNC shouldn't jump all the way from #3 to #1.
So a kid who goes to an IMG school is not allowed to go work out in Florida during their time in school or prior to their time in school? Are college players who go to IMG schools more likely to get wild cards into ITFs? It would be very ineteresting if you went through a couple years to see which kids from which programs got the most wildcards. If a school is getting their players wildcards that might be a recruiting tool right?
I could be wrong but I don't think going to an IMG marketed school has any correlation in being able to train at the IMG academy.
It's tough to tell because Alec Adamson & Santtu Leskinnen were close to dropping out of the top 125 and they have to be ranked inside the top 125 to get in as an AQ.
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